Brazil's presidential election will be settled in a second round on 25 October. In the first round on 4 October, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), but neither candidate won more than half of the valid votes.

The numbers

According to the official count reported by the electoral court, Flávio Bolsonaro received about 56.1 million votes, or 47.03 per cent. Lula received about 53.9 million, or 45.16 per cent. No other candidate passed 3 per cent: Augusto Cury (Avante) took 2.89 per cent, Renan Santos (Missão) 2.24 per cent and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 2.18 per cent.

Turnout was 78.92 per cent, almost unchanged from the 2022 election.

Polls missed the order

Final polls had shown Lula slightly ahead. An AtlasIntel survey published before the vote put him on 47 per cent and Flávio Bolsonaro on 44.1. The result reversed that order, which will put the polling industry under scrutiny for the second round.

Congress moves right

All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the 81 Senate seats were also up for election. Partial results reported after the vote show the PL as the largest party in the Chamber with 121 seats, a gain of 22. In the Senate, the PL is listed with 29 seats, up 14. Whoever wins the presidency will face a legislature in which the right has more weight than before.

What to watch before 25 October

  • Transfers from smaller candidates. Almost 8 per cent of the vote went to candidates who are now out of the race. Their endorsements, or silence, will matter in a contest this close.
  • Turnout among Lula's base. A small change in turnout in the north-east, where the PT is traditionally strong, could decide the result.
  • Governors. Races for governor were held in all 26 states and the Federal District, and some also go to a second round on the same day.

Sources